Earthquake prediction: the scientific challenge.
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
colloquium entitled " Earthquake Prediction : The Scientific Challenge , " organized
Earthquake prediction research has searched for both informational phenomena, those that provide information about earthquake hazards useful to the public, and causal phenomena, causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault, to improve our understanding of those processes. Neither informational nor causal phenomena are a subset of the other. I propose a classification ...
متن کاملpresented at a colloquium entitled " Earthquake Prediction : The Scientific Challenge , " organized by Leon
Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to valid...
متن کاملEarthquake Prediction: The Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis in assessing earthquake predictions is often, loosely speaking, that the successful predictions are chance coincidences. To make this more precise requires specifying a chance model for the predictions and/or the seismicity. The null hypothesis tends to be rejected not only when the predictions have merit, but also when the chance model is inappropriate. In one standard appr...
متن کاملRethinking Earthquake Prediction
We re-examine and summarize what is now possible in predicting earthquakes, what might be accomplished (and hence might be possible in the next few decades) and what types of predictions appear to be inherently impossible based on our understanding of earthquakes as complex phenomena. We take predictions to involve a variety of time scales from seconds to a few decades. Earthquake warnings and ...
متن کاملThe Prediction Problems of Earthquake System Science
Editor’s note: The following is the text of the SSA Presidential Address presented at the Annual Luncheon of the Seismological Society of America (SSA) Annual Meeting on 30 April 2014. The Seismological Society of America (SSA) has always been dedicated to understanding and reducing the earthquake threat. The Society was founded in 1906 “for the acquisition and diffusion of knowledge concerning...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
سال: 1996
ISSN: 0027-8424,1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.93.9.3719